A structured Smart Money Concepts (SMC) breakdown of Gold (XAU/USD) across four key timeframes – ideal for institutional-style traders focused on liquidity, structure, and precision entries.
🟨 1. Daily Timeframe – Macro Bias
- Market Structure: Recent bullish trend ended with a clear CHOCH, followed by a BOS confirming a shift to bearish.
- Liquidity: Buy-side liquidity above highs has been swept; current consolidation likely inducement before further drop.
- Zones: Price is reacting from a prior supply zone (distribution phase).
- Bias: Bearish
- Trade Idea: Look to sell from premium zones after retracement; target lows or imbalance areas.
🟧 2. 4H Timeframe – Trend Refinement
- Structure: After initial bearish BOS, a bullish CHOCH formed, but failed to sustain. A fresh bearish BOS confirms continuation.
- Liquidity: Equal highs above = inducement; sell-side liquidity already swept.
- POIs: Price approaching unmitigated 4H supply with potential for rejection.
- Bias: Still bearish, but short-term retracement in play.
- Trade Plan: Watch for price to tap supply, sweep liquidity, and form LTF CHOCH for short entry.
🟩 3. 1H Timeframe – Execution Prep
- Structure: Recent CHOCH led to bullish rally with a new BOS. Current trend is bullish but likely a pullback in HTF downtrend.
- Liquidity: Buy-side liquidity above forming → potential trap.
- Zones: Fresh demand zone below from the breakout impulse.
- Bias: Mixed (bullish short-term, bearish context).
- Trade Plan:
- If sweep + rejection = short
- If retrace to OB = scalp long
🟦 4. 15M Timeframe – Precision Entry
- Structure: Strong bullish shift confirmed by multiple BOS after deep sweep and CHOCH.
- Liquidity: Building buy-side liquidity; possible inducement.
- Zones: Demand below (origin of impulse); imbalance also present.
- Bias: Bullish, but near exhaustion.
- Entry Models:
- Look for bearish CHOCH at high for short
- If price retraces → bullish CHOCH from OB = continuation long
🧭 Overall Summary
| Timeframe | Structure | Liquidity | Bias | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daily | Bearish | Above highs swept | Bearish | Sell from premium |
| 4H | Bearish | Equal highs above | Bearish | Watch for rejection |
| 1H | Bullish | Near liquidity zone | Mixed | Scalp setups only |
| 15M | Bullish | Inducement forming | Bullish | Entry refinement |
Next Steps:
- Monitor 15M for rejection + CHOCH to trigger shorts.
- Use 1H demand zone for pullback buys, only with strong LTF confirmation.